A looming scenario: will Israel invade southern Lebanon?

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is another chapter in a long series of clashes that began with the militant group’s formation against Israel’s brutal occupation in 1985. Over the years, both sides have inflicted significant damage, forcing one another to regroup and retaliate. Hezbollah remains the only military organization to have successfully defeated the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon, under Ariel Sharon’s command, and secured a ceasefire deal under its terms in the 2006 war.

However, the current regional dynamics in the Middle East have shifted the balance. Despite Hezbollah’s growth over the past two decades, the group has suffered major setbacks, particularly from Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency and the Israeli Air Force. From targeted assassinations of top commanders to sabotage through pager and walkie-talkie explosions, including the elimination of the leadership of its elite Radwan Special Forces, Hezbollah is now facing disarray. Some of these setbacks include:

1)    According to Reuters, a source (Hezbollah official) said the attack on the communication devices have put some 1,500 fighters out of commission because of their injuries.

2)    Senior figures have been targeted including top commanders like Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ibrahim Qoubeissi (recently assassinated in the southern suburbs of Beirut).

3)    Major arms depots and missile factories have been heavily bombarded by the Israeli military, especially in the Baalbek-Hermel region.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah still uses a flexible command and a vast network of tunnels to sustain its operations. A report to the US Congress, on September 20, have put the fighter power of Hezbollah between 40,000-50,000 fighters though Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah says it’s around 100,000 fighters.

This means that Hezbollah still maintains significant power and an aerial campaign alone, no matter how intense, cannot win the war.

What are the Israelis planning to do?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to see the current moment as a pivotal opportunity to finally neutralize Hezbollah, a group that has consistently posed a formidable threat to Israel since 1982. With the U.S. elections looming in just 44 days, Netanyahu, whose own political future has been uncertain amid domestic controversy, may feel pressured to take decisive action.

Netanyahu is likely contemplating a strategy similar to that employed by Ariel Sharon during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Sharon aimed to dismantle the PLO and establish a secure buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Today, Netanyahu’s potential goal could be to push Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, establishing a 40-kilometer security zone between northern Israel and Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon. This area was once patrolled by the now-defunct South Lebanon Army (SLA), which served as an Israeli proxy force until the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.

However, unlike 1982, the current situation poses significantly greater challenges. Hezbollah is not only far more powerful than the PLO, but it also possesses a sophisticated arsenal of long-range and precision-guided missiles. Moreover, Hezbollah has strong political backing from Iran and is deeply entrenched in Lebanese politics. A ground incursion could provoke a widespread retaliatory missile campaign targeting Israeli cities like Haifa, and potentially Tel Aviv. The question remains whether Israel is willing to endure such heavy damage in exchange for securing the buffer zone. Will Israel pursue a negotiated settlement through diplomatic channels, or is Netanyahu prepared for a protracted, high-cost conflict?