Arabian Nights Trumpian Days: Trump’s Middle East Playbook 2.0

On November 5, 2024, the United States witnessed one of its most decisive elections in history. Not only will it have significant impacts on the American public, but its repercussions will reverberate across much of the world, most notably the Middle East, which has been plunged into devastating and destabilizing events since October 7, 2023. Many concerned observers are keen to see a change in the region and hope that the return of Donald Trump to the White House will achieve just that. From here, what is Trump’s vision for the Middle East, and will he be able to fulfill his intended aspirations?

Not so long ago, Trump’s playbook in the region crystalized at the end of his presidential term. On September 15, 2020, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel signed historic agreements, known as the “Abraham Accords Declaration,” to normalize relations and end more than four decades of hostilities and enmity. It also marked the first normalization treaty since the Oslo Accords (1993–1995) between Israel and Palestine and the Wadi Araba Treaty (1994) between Israel and Jordan. Shortly after, Sudan and Morocco followed suit and signed their own peace treaties with Israel. These Arab countries would not have embarked on such a bold and influential course without receiving concrete guarantees and benefits—not from Israel, but from the United States. For instance, on December 10, 2020, Washington proclaimed its recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, while on December 14, the U.S. Government announced Sudan’s removal from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list.

Furthermore, Trump’s administration linked normalization with economic prosperity and security in the Middle East. A perfect example of this policy was outlined in the 2023 “India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor,” which included two Arab countries that normalized relations with Israel (UAE and Jordan), along with another major regional power on track to join the league: Saudi Arabia.

Regarding Israeli-Saudi relations, the two were on course to normalization, sponsored and mediated by the United States, if not for the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023. Riyadh outlined its conditions for any peace treaty, which must include a U.S.-Saudi defense pact (similar to NATO’s Article 5), the sale of advanced U.S. arms and warplanes to Saudi Arabia (most prominently the F-35 fighter jets), Washington’s assistance in developing its own civilian nuclear program, and a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue as outlined in the 2002 “Arab Peace Initiative.” The latter calls for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within its internationally recognized 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and the halting of all settlement projects, especially in the West Bank. Despite the U.S. efforts to achieve this historic milestone, the events since October 7 have hindered this process and put the fate of an Israeli-Saudi peace treaty in question.

Fast-forward to today’s conflict, Donald Trump has been carefully observing the developments unfolding. This issue is also related to the U.S. presidential elections, especially in the state of Michigan. Michigan hosts a significant portion of Arab Americans, who constitute a majority in Dearborn, and is one of the country’s seven essential swing states that play a key role in determining election outcomes. Trump criticized current U.S. President Joe Biden, and later his Vice President Kamala Harris, for their “weak” and “destabilizing” policies in the region, vowing to end the conflict if elected. On October 26, 2024, he sent a letter to the Lebanese American community, claiming that he aims to achieve not only “equal partnership among all Lebanese communities” but also real and lasting peace in the Middle East. Notably, Trump referred to the word “peace” seven times, signaling his determination to pursue a comprehensive peace plan in the region. This was reiterated by Dr. Massad Boulos, coordinator of Arab relations for Trump’s campaign, who claimed that the former President “is a man of peace and has shown this during his four years, achieving four peace agreements in the Middle East—a feat not seen since Camp David.”

Despite his stated intent to achieve peace, the means and policies Trump might resort to do not necessarily guarantee this goal anytime soon. He could advocate further escalation, especially between November 6, 2024, and January 20, 2025, before reaching the aforementioned peace, in order to bend the so-called “Resistance Axis.” This axis includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza, where Tehran’s proxies are active. Severe sanctions, economic pressure, assassinations, and even striking Iran’s nuclear facilities might well be on the table—measures previously endorsed by Trump.

In conclusion, Trump has his eyes on achieving comprehensive peace in the Middle East to add to his previous “achievements.” However, substantial questions remain: Will the “Resistance Axis” bend to his aspirations? Will Israel pursue a limited land grab in Gaza and Lebanon for future bargaining, similar to the 1979 “Camp David Accords”? Will Israel sincerely commit to establishing the Palestinian state demanded by Saudi Arabia? Or will it, along with the U.S., rely on Trump’s highly controversial 2020 peace plan? Finally, will Trump achieve the peace he has continuously promised, and at whose expense?